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economics, politics,
and irrational optimization under absurd constraints

the online journal of dave

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Jan
22nd
Sun
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Imagine for a moment a world where all of the Repair shops and Automobile Mechanics in the country formed an association. As part of that union, they all agreed that no one would work on any vehicle unless the car owner signed an arbitration agreement. Same goes for the hiring of mechanics — they had to sign as well.

Now imagine when you had a dispute over a repair, you went to the Repair Garage & Automobile Mechanics Arbitration Association. How do you think that would turn out? That is the FINRA arbitration system, only instead of disputes over $600 repairs, its $100,000 of losses — in some cases millions of dollars. What are the odds you will get a fair hearing in this private, opaque, non transparent, literally Wall Street owned system. Its a national embarrassment, a legal sham.

Welcome to the Kangaroo Court of Wall Street.

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Jan
2nd
Mon
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Back in 2005 I did an evil, evil thing. Discovering the proliferation of websites where student plagiarists could copy essays, I wrote a Trojan horse paper about the Magna Carta and seeded it on a few plagiarism sites. The essay is basically wrong from beginning to end. Amongst other silliness, it claims that King John’s titles included Duke of Hazzard, and observes that “peasants were reduced to eating burage and socage.” It also invents a fictitious war against Flanders Fland (a region on the coast of Luxembourg) and cites such scholarly tomes as Bollock and Maidenhead’s classicInterminable History of the English Law.
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Dec
3rd
Sat
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…like a gambler admitting the fiction of a pack of cards, a corruptible paradise of two-headed people.
— Jorge Luis Borges, “The Art of Verbal Abuse”
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Nov
23rd
Wed
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In the first part of the paper, D&S analyze the optimal tax rate on top earners. And they argue that this should be the rate that maximizes the revenue collected from these top earners — full stop. Why? Because if you’re trying to maximize any sort of aggregate welfare measure, it’s clear that a marginal dollar of income makes very little difference to the welfare of the wealthy, as compared with the difference it makes to the welfare of the poor and middle class. So to a first approximation policy should soak the rich for the maximum amount — not out of envy or a desire to punish, but simply to raise as much money as possible for other purposes.

Now, this doesn’t imply a 100% tax rate, because there are going to be behavioral responses – high earners will generate at least somewhat less taxable income in the face of a high tax rate, either by actually working less or by pushing their earnings underground. Using parameters based on the literature, D&S suggest that the optimal tax rate on the highest earners is in the vicinity of 70%.

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Nov
16th
Wed
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The incomplete logic of the American marketplace today

There’s an enabling logic in contemporary American capitalism that has put us where we are today. It goes like this: as a highly-skilled, well-educated member of society, there is in fact an ethical mandate to embrace cupidity and maximize profit to the exclusion of other goals. For, as you’ve been taught, when the most capable members of society are competing against one another in a marketplace with that single-minded purpose, society collectively benefits: consumer prices are lower, investors receive the highest return (meaning the highest retirement income for pensioners and 401k-holders), and technological innovation progresses at the fastest possible clip. By embracing profit, you are helping navigate the ship of humanity with maximal efficiency toward its Enlightenment-style singularity.

But this logic is incomplete. A market that produces these social outcomes is of a very particular structure: it is genuinely competitive. It is the second-order effects of that competitive pressure — the price reduction wars between competing managers, and concomitant cost-squeezing that entails — which actually produce these social outcomes, rather than profit maximization in isolation. Where profit maximization is not accompanied by competition, the social welfare is very simply not served by it.

And the key omitted element of this logic is that a competitive market requires two external forces: (1) effective contract-enforcement in all cases; and, (2) public-minded regulators in most cases. The first nearly goes without saying, but requires a legal system that values the general commercial concern over the specific. The second is derived from the fact that most goods in and of themselves are not of a structure conducive (without some set of external rules) to competition. A well-governed market ruleset that prevents severe dips into such disequilibria as monopoly is required to make competition work for the common good.

It is on this count that we’ve gone horribly off course. When policy influence and regulatory arbitrage became legitimized tools of competition — pursued to the exclusion of cost-cutting, of price reduction — we severed the link between profit maximization and social benefit. When changing the rules of the game became easier than improving under those rules, the market’s utility as social tool failed.

But the incomplete, enabling logic has calcified into ethos for too many. The map from profit maximization to social benefit is a powerful, counterintuitive insight. But at such a very high level of abstraction, it is simply not very useful or accurate. A more transparently absurd analogy would be saying that the big takeaway from medicine is that avoiding medical care will lead to better long-term health. There’s a kernel of truth here: if a person engages in healthy behavior that prevents illness and obviates the need for acute care, then they are more likely to be healthier in the long run. But you can see how this heuristic is terribly unhelpful for guiding the actual decisions people would confront. It’s too general; it doesn’t elaborate upon any of the causal nuances required to actually guide people toward the aim of better health. And the enabling logic of American capitalism today is equally dangerous.

I do not have some tangible policy prescription here, because I think such policies require a very basic level of political buy-in at the ideological level that isn’t feasible until we collectively agree to some very basic points:

- Collective social benefit is the aim of any type of societal enterprise.

- Markets and profit are means to the end of social benefit, not ends themselves.

- Profit itself does not make an activity socially beneficial.

- The burden of proof for social benefit is on those profiting, not society.

- When profit and social benefit are clearly at odds, social benefit should hold primacy.

Putting the cart back behind the horse, I think we just might have a starting point to make capitalism work again in America. And, if we actually put social benefit ahead of profit-as-evidence-of-benefit, who knows? Maybe some engineers and scientists just might get off Wall Street and back to playing the positive-sum games of society.

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Oct
25th
Tue
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Most of economics can be done on the back of a napkin, but most things done on the back of a napkin are not economics.

(Alternately: fuck you, Arthur Laffer.)

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Sep
29th
Thu
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Then, in the middle of the recall madness, Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines opened. As the movie’s leading machine, he was expected to appear on The Tonight Show to promote it. En route he experienced a familiar impulse—the impulse to do something out of the ordinary. “I just thought, This will freak everyone out,” he says. “It’ll be so funny. I’ll announce that I am running. I told Leno I was running. And two months later I was governor.” He looks over at me, pedaling as fast as I can to keep up with him, and laughs. “What the fuck is that?
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Sep
28th
Wed
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@Nouriel Nouriel Roubini: US/EZ/UK sinking in a recession.Issue is no longer double-dip or not: rather whether mild 1 or a severe 1 with a new global financial crisis 4 minutes ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
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Sep
23rd
Fri
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Jan Pen, a Dutch economist who died last year, came up with a striking way to picture inequality. Imagine people’s height being proportional to their income, so that someone with an average income is of average height. Now imagine that the entire adult population of America is walking past you in a single hour, in ascending order of income.

The first passers-by, the owners of loss-making businesses, are invisible: their heads are below ground. Then come the jobless and the working poor, who are midgets. After half an hour the strollers are still only waist-high, since America’s median income is only half the mean. It takes nearly 45 minutes before normal-sized people appear. But then, in the final minutes, giants thunder by. With six minutes to go they are 12 feet tall. When the 400 highest earners walk by, right at the end, each is more than two miles tall.

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